This is just one activity topic that you may choose to complete a Supernova award. The activity topic list has many others you may complete, plus information about what's needed for reports. Any resources listed are examples and you might use alternative or additional sources.
Linking the Past to the Future: Predicting Old Faithful's Next Eruption
This activity can be done individually, but works much better with three to six people.
The scenario: You have lined up a summer job as a junior park ranger at Yellowstone National Park, where you know many visitors come to see the geyser Old Faithful. Many visitors arrive just after Old Faithful has erupted and they typically ask a nearby ranger when it is next expected to erupt. Your task is to analyze past ~/data on Old Faithful's eruptions in order to devise a strategy for predicting the next eruption.
Part 1: ~/data Gathering and Initial Analysis
1.
Gather information about geysers in general and their behavior.
A.
Find data on intervals (length of time) between eruptions for Old
Faithful. Be aware that Old Faithful's eruption behavior has
changed over the years. Use the most current data you can find. For
your analysis and to test your prediction strategy, you will need
information on all of the intervals for three consecutive 24-hour
periods, plus intervals for the fourth consecutive 24-hour period.
Each additional youth must use intervals for different days.
B.
Create two graphical displays of the data from three days of
eruptions, analyze the patterns, and formulate your initial
prediction strategy.
Part 2: Further Analysis, Refinement of Prediction Strategy, and Report
1.
Do the following:
A.
Using the data you have collected for part 1, determine how much
variability you see from day to day. How much variability is there
within a single 24-hour period? Is knowledge of one interval
sufficient to predict the next eruption? Why or why not?
B.
Determine what patterns in the data are illuminated (or perhaps
obscured) in the different graphical displays. Of the graphs you
used, which one best illustrated the wait time pattern for Old
Faithful? Would you refine your prediction strategy? If so, why and
how? If not, why not?
C.
Use your prediction strategy to estimate all of the eruptions for
the fourth 24-hour period, and compare your estimates to the actual
eruption times. Calculate the differences between your estimates
and the actual times. What is the maximum difference? Why are there
patterns in the Old Faithful data? Is there a geological
explanation?
D.
Create a report that describes and addresses your prediction
strategy, includes your graphical displays, and explains how your
graphical displays support your strategy.
E.
Discuss the data you have collected, your report, and what you have
learned with your mentor.
Resources
T. Scott Bryan. Geysers: What They Are and How They Work, 2nd ed. Mountain Press Publishing Company, 2005.
William J. Fritz. Roadside Geology of the Yellowstone Country. Mountain Press Publishing Company, 1985.
